The latest forecast by France-based consulting company Yole D_Developpement: With the start of the autonomous car revolution, the global LiDAR market value will grow by more than 60% in the next five years. The global LiDAR market was valued at US$1.3 billion in 2018 and will continue to “explode” in the next five years and will reach US$6.4 billion by 2024.
The company’s analysts have been paying close attention to the technologies being developed by companies such as BMW, Chrysler and Audi. The analysts tracked the emergence of automotive LiDAR in their new report entitled “LiDAR for Automotive and Industrial Applications.” Since the end of 2017, Audi has integrated LiDAR provided by Valeo in its high-end A8 models. The analysis company added that the company is currently expanding this feature to other models, such as the Q8, A7 and A6. The application of lidar is in full swing, and other automakers have announced or are expected to integrate this technology in future cars. Take BMW, for example, which is cooperating with parts giant Magna and Israeli startup Innoviz Technologies. Innoviz recently announced a round of C-series venture capital, valued at $132 million, to support BMW’s deal to expand its production of low-cost lidar equipment before the launch of LiDAR-equipped models in 2021.
Such a move prompted Yole to predict that by 2024 the total value of the lidar market will “explode” to US$6 billion, with automotive applications accounting for 70% of the total value. High-altitude and fully automated driving are about to become a reality. In the near future, driven by the reduction of production costs and the emergence of new technologies, LiDAR will become a key component of automotive applications. Analysts expect the market to grow explosively. The compound annual growth rate in 2024 is 64%.
The current level of autonomy is described as supporting “liberated feet” driving. The Yole team expects to achieve “liberated hands” operation around 2027, and then achieve “liberated eyes” driving in 2035, as well as for robots in about 10 years. After the car is fully checked and accepted, it will realize “brain-free” driving. Yole analysts believe that the total output of autonomous driving cars will reach 44,000 in 2021, 400,000 in 2026, and 3.1 million in 2032. According to the demand for lidar systems, Debray predicts that the unit shipments of automotive LiDAR systems will double every year to nearly 4 million units in 2024. This means that by then, the unit cost of the technology will be $1,000. Within range.